The international break is right around the corner, but first, we have a thrilling matchday eight slate in the Premier League. The Sunday schedule sees a trio of exciting matches as Brighton hosts Liverpool and West Ham takes on Newcastle while all action leads to the marquee tie between Arsenal and Manchester City. Let’s dive into my analysis and top bets for matchday eight in the PL.
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Premier League Matchday 8 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Crystal Palace (+125) vs. Nottingham Forest (+255), DRAW (+220) | 2.5 (+140/-175)
Saturday’s six-match slate wraps up with a mid-table clash as ninth-ranked Crystal Palace hosts 12th-ranked Nottingham Forest. Kickoff for this one is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET from Selhurst Park Stadium in London.
Palace is putting together a decent campaign, and their recent form is solid as they’ve picked up points in four of their last five matches. That includes the most recent outing, a 1-0 road victory over a floundering Manchester United side. I’m going to back the Eagles at home this weekend. They’ve been excellent at Selhurst Park, losing just once over their last eight matches at the ground (four wins, three draws).
Meanwhile, Forest hasn’t been fabulous recently, going 0-2-1 in their last three matches while scoring just two goals. The big storyline since the Trees made the jump to the top flight last campaign is that they cannot win on the road. Essentially, it was their home form in 2022-2023 that kept them up. They were an abysmal 1-5-13 on the road last season and they’re off to a 1-0-3 start this year. I have to fade Nottingham Forest on the road, especially with a plus-money payout doing so.
Bet: Crystal Palace Moneyline (+125)
Wolverhampton (+250) vs. Aston Villa (+105), DRAW (+270) | 2.5 (-140/+115)
Perhaps Gary O’Neil and his Wolves squad are finally finding their footing this year as they’re coming off of a huge 2-1 upset over Manchester City last weekend. Now it’s time to host the upward-trending Aston Villa at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton. This one kicks off on Sunday at 9:00 a.m. ET.
So, the recent result over City offers up the question, are the Wanderers actually turning the corner, or was this just a flash in the pan? Honestly, I lean toward the latter. In my opinion, the reigning champs let the match slip through their fingers with the upcoming trip to Leipzig on the horizon. Even looking at the match report, you’ll notice Wolverhampton scored on an own goal and they were dominated in possession (68.1% vs. 31.9%), total shots (23 vs. 3), and shots on goal (8 vs. 1). A win’s a win, sure, but I feel confident saying this one was a bit of a fluke.
Aside from the win over City, Wolves have been railroaded at home this campaign, losing 4-1 to Brighton and dropping a 3-1 contest to Liverpool, more recently. Now they’re tasked with a Villans squad that’s off to an impressive 5-0-2 start in the Premier League. They just decimated Brighton 6-1 last weekend, marking their third straight domestic victory. I’m not going to overthink this one, I’m taking the slight plus-money payout that comes with Aston Villa to win.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (+105)
Arsenal (+205) vs. Manchester City (+145), DRAW (+230) | 2.5 (-115/-110)
The marquee matchup this weekend features a Sunday nightcap between Arsenal and Manchester City. The champs currently hold the top spot in the table at 6-0-1 while Arsenal is in third at 5-2-0. This one gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET from Emirates Stadium in London.
Pep Guardiola and his men are certainly earning their air miles recently as this will mark their fourth straight road contest. Their European tour has featured stops in Newcastle, Wolverhampton, and Leipzig, Germany, and now they’ll finish off in London against Arsenal.
While we saw a ton of goals in the 3-1 midweek Champions League victory over RB Leipzig, it was a couple of late goals (84’, 90’ + 2’) that saw the game go over. It was mostly a vintage, possession-dominant effort from City. They controlled 68.2% of the possession battle while allowing just three shot attempts. The lone goal against came off of a transition breakdown where the speedy Leipzig capitalized.
Now, that’s something that City will have to be aware of this weekend as they take on Arsenal at the Emirates. However, the Gunners will likely be without their lead scorer in Bukayo Saka, who left their recent 2-1 loss to Lens in the 34’ (muscular injury). The forward has netted four goals in the PL this season.
Both of these teams have been worked to the bone by managing their busy schedules, and I think we see the fatigue come into play on Sunday. I anticipate another performance from Manchester City where they slow the game down and take the air out of the ball. Pep should instill the message that "your opponent cannot score if they don’t have the ball (unless it was the OG against Wolves last weekend)." Ultimately, despite the offensive prowess that both teams possess, I think goals will be at a premium. I’m locking in the under in this spot.
Bet: Under 2.5 (-110)
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