NFL Week 3 Rankings + Projections Update: The Rams, And Everyone Else

NFL Week 3 Rankings + Projections Update: The Rams, And Everyone Else

September 20, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 3 rankings and predictions changes, after a Week 2 that featured some big upsets and intriguing division matchups.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting this week? Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for NFL Week 3.

NFL Week 3 Rankings Updates

Here are biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 3. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

Team	Division	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
LA Rams	NFC West	1	1	5.8	7.5	1.7
Indianapolis	AFC South	30	28	-4.3	-2.6	1.7
Cincinnati	AFC North	16	13	0.1	1.1	1.0
Miami	AFC East	28	24	-2.9	-1.9	1.0
Jacksonville	AFC South	10	8	1.7	2.6	0.9

Already ranked No. 1 last week, the Rams also saw the biggest rating increase this week after a 34-0 demolition of the Cardinals. LAR’s predictive rating now stands 2.8 points ahead of the next highest ranked team, New England.

(It’s worth noting that despite New England’s 1-1 record and road loss to Jacksonville last week, smart data-driven ratings are careful not to overreact to very early season games. For example, the Patriots made the Super Bowl last year, but started out 2-2.)

The Colts also took a big step forward with a 21-9 upset win at Washington. Indianapolis also got a secondary boost after the team they lost to in Week 1, Cincinnati, had a better-than-expected win vs. Baltimore on Thursday night.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 3 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 3:

Team	Division	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Indianapolis	AFC South	5.9	7.2	1.3
Miami	AFC East	7.6	8.6	1.0
Kansas City	AFC West	8.9	9.9	1.0
Cincinnati	AFC North	8.3	9.2	0.9
Jacksonville	AFC South	9.4	10.3	0.9

With an unexpected win at Washington, Capt. Andrew Luck’s Colts battalion sees the biggest increase in expected season wins. The Colts still look out of the playoff picture with a projection of 7.2 wins, however.

Miami and Kansas City also had projection increases of more than a win after the Dolphins won at the Jets and the Chiefs won at Pittsburgh. Both teams are sitting pretty at 2-0 after two weeks of the regular season.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 3 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Cincinnati	AFC North	20.0%	37.9%	17.9%
LA Rams	NFC West	70.9%	85.1%	14.2%
Miami	AFC East	10.9%	24.7%	13.8%
Dallas	NFC East	13.9%	24.6%	10.7%
Kansas City	AFC West	43.4%	54.0%	10.6%

The two biggest increases this week, predictably, come from teams that had big division wins. Cincinnati took down the Ravens to move to 2-0. Coupled with a Steelers loss, the Bengals are now the surprising favorites in the AFC North.

The Rams blew out Arizona in Week 2, by a margin even greater than expected, but the impressive win coupled with Seattle’s loss at Chicago put LAR strongly in the driver’s seat in the NFC West. Currently with 85% odds to win the division, the Rams have an opportunity to lock up the NFC West pretty early this year if this trend continues.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 3 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Division	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Miami	AFC East	28.1%	43.9%	15.8%
Cincinnati	AFC North	39.4%	55.0%	15.6%
Kansas City	AFC West	54.8%	68.6%	13.8%
Jacksonville	AFC South	60.5%	72.2%	11.7%
Tampa Bay	NFC South	27.6%	39.3%	11.7%

Miami won a Wild Card spot in 2016 and are starting to look like a more formidable team in the AFC, now with the sixth best odds in the conference to make the playoffs after defeating the Jets on the road. Their schedule strength (or lack thereof) is also a contributing factor here, as it’s the third easiest in the NFL the rest of the way.

After an upset win over Pittsburgh, Kansas City now has a better than 2-in-3 chance to make the playoffs. With the Chargers and Steelers out of the way, the Chiefs also have the 10th easiest remaining schedule.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 3, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 3 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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